So. To be honest, I don’t think iTunes is going to be much help this week – it’s all too close, and there are too many artists who prove to be exceptions with more support than we can predict.
Lowest shares: Paije and Mary
Lowest trending down: One Direction and Rebecca
Last night’s predictions from my musical judgement + a bit of modelling: Paije and Wagner
Let’s see which, if any of these, are right…???
EDIT – AFTER THE RESULTS
OK, Cher in the bottom two was a total shocker. Can’t say we could have predicted that from iTunes or the music itself. I’m guessing she alienated her fanbase more than expected, and other people aren’t yet warming to her. Either that or she seemed so safe, people didn’t bother voting. Or maybe Simon was right about the damn stairs, and no-one could remember the tune after all the time the judges spent bickering about them. If the judges are more memorable than the talent, the talent gets no votes, even if they were really good…
Paije, on the other hand, was the only person predicted for bottom two by two of the models above, so is the least shocker, but it’s still a shame he had to go.
We’ve got to come back to the question of why Wagner hasn’t been bottom two yet, and when that will happen. Clearly his fanbase is bigger than expected, but I suspect not much bigger – reality is catching up for him. When he is finally bottom two, it will be the shortest final judging bit ever. I still prefer Tony Ferrino. (Why can’t Wagner be a short term affair?)